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04/21/2020

U.S. Home Prices Rose in March Despite Onset of COVID-19 Crisis, Radian Home Price Index Reveals

PHILADELPHIA--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Apr. 21, 2020-- Home prices across the United States rose at an annualized rate of 5.8 percent in March 2020 from February 2020, according to Radian Home Price Index (HPI) data released today by Red Bell Real Estate, LLC (“Red Bell”), a subsidiary of Radian Group Inc. (NYSE: RDN). The Radian HPI is the most comprehensive and timely measure of U.S. housing market prices and conditions.

The Radian HPI also rose 7.7 percent year-over-year (April 2019 to March 2020), which was slightly higher than the year-over-year increase of 7.4 percent recorded last month. While real estate markets came under significant pressure in the second half of March, as of the end of the month the impact of the COVID-19 crisis had yet to materially translate into any impact on home prices.

The Radian HPI is calculated based on the values of more than 70 million unique addresses each month, covering all single-family property types and geographies.

“U.S. housing values remained well supported in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. While that could change going forward, data indicates that the impact may vary significantly by region and locality,” said Steve Gaenzler, senior vice president of Data and Analytics at Radian.

NATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS

  • Median home value in the U.S. rose to $252,597
  • Home prices rose 6.28 percent in the first quarter

Nationally, the median estimated value for single-family and condominium homes rose to $252,597. Home values have increased consistently since the low the Radian HPI recorded in the second quarter of 2012. On an annualized basis, home prices nationally rose 6.28 percent in the first quarter, as limited supply and strong demand supported an earlier-than-normal spring pick-up. The early spring season began to take hold prior to the onset of COVID-19 related shutdowns in many cities, which helped underpin prices in March.

REGIONAL DATA AND TRENDS

  • West Region was strongest Q1 performer
  • Mid-Atlantic Region cools

During the first quarter of 2020, the West and South tallied the best regional performances, recording 6.91 and 6.62 percent annualized gains respectively. The Northeast, as is typical in the winter and early spring months, lagged the other regions, only recording a 1.95 percent quarterly gain. On a monthly basis, from February to March, all of the regions reported positive increases in home prices, with the exception of the Mid-Atlantic region, which declined slightly from the prior month.

METROPOLITAN AREA DATA AND TRENDS

  • COVID-19 has not broadly impacted prices in Q1
  • New York and Philadelphia show signs of weakness
  • Shelter-in-place hasn’t impacted prices in Seattle or San Francisco

As of the end of March, social distancing measures did not appear to have had a broadly meaningful impact on home prices in major metropolitan areas, according to the Radian HPI data. A review of the nation’s ten largest Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) found that from January through March 2020, all reported higher annualized price increases. However, among that group, the New York and Philadelphia metro areas registered the weakest monthly increases from February, at 0.91 and 1.24 percent respectively. While not top ten CBSAs by size, two other CBSAs that have been largely shelter-in-place for the month of March, Seattle and San Francisco, showed no sign of weakness in pricing.

ADDITIONAL FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS

  • Recent real estate data support key findings of the Radian HPI
  • Limited changes to prices or listings prior to second week of March
  • Most recent data indicate a more rapid deterioration in real estate prices in some, but not all, markets

Analysis by the Radian HPI team of day-by-day data related to planned, in-progress or completed real estate transactions in March reveal little out of the ordinary in the real estate market prior to the near nationwide stay-at-home mandates in the second week of March. Before then, in most U.S. metropolitan areas, the number of daily closings, listings and homes going into contract tracked very closely to the same time period in the prior year. In fact, listings sold in March were 5% higher nationally than in the similar 2019 period. However, data reported in the final two weeks of March showed declines of 40-50% in new listings and properties going under contract in some areas.

ABOUT THE RADIAN HPI

Red Bell, a subsidiary of Radian Group Inc., provides national and regional indices for download at info.radian.biz/hpi, along with information on how to access the full library of indices. Additional content on the housing market can also be found on the Radian Insights page located at https://www.radian.com/hpi/.

The company also offers an enhanced Radian HPI data set along with a client access portal for content visualization and data extraction. The engine behind the Radian HPI has created more than 100,000 unique data series, which are updated on a monthly basis.

The enhanced Radian HPI is a self-service data and visualization platform that contains a library of thousands of high-value indices based on both geographic dimensions as well as by market, or property attributes. The platform provides monthly updated access to nine different geographic dimensions, from the national level down to zip codes. In addition, the Radian HPI provides unique insights into market changes, conditions and strength across multiple property attributes, including bedroom count and livable square footage. To help enhance its customers’ understanding of granular real estate markets, the library is expanded regularly to include more insightful indices.

In addition to the services offered by its Red Bell subsidiary, Radian is ensuring the American dream of homeownership responsibly and sustainably through products and services that include industry-leading mortgage insurance and a comprehensive suite of mortgage, risk, real estate, and title services. We are powered by technology, informed by data and driven to deliver new and better ways to transact and manage risk. Learn more about Radian’s financial strength and flexibility at www.radian.com and visit www.radian.com to see how Radian is shaping the future of mortgage and real estate services.

For Investors
John Damian – Phone: 215.231.1383
Email: john.damian@radian.com

For the Media
Rashi Iyer – Phone: 215.231.1167
Email: rashi.iyer@radian.com

Source: Radian Group Inc.